According to calendar adjusted data, Turkey’s industrial production in November increased by 11% compared to the same month of the previous year; Seasonal and calendar adjusted industrial production increased by 0.5% compared to the previous month. According to the unadjusted data, there was an increase of 8.7% in industrial production compared to the same period of the previous year. Our forecast was that industrial production increased by 10% on an annual basis in November with adjusted data.
Industrial production data point to an annual increase of 11.3%, above our expectation of 10%. Data are positive and demand indicators continue their strong trend. After the closing effect in 2Q20, the rapid recovery effect that started in 3Q20 was reflected in October and November periods. In the period of economic normalization, in addition to the acceleration in production, the effects of restrictions are also beginning to be seen, and keeping production channels open will make the sector appear more positive. In 3Q20, the repercussions of the effects of the government in terms of supporting the economy, especially keeping credit channels loose, continue.
When we look at the details; Mining and quarrying increased by 0.3% on a monthly basis and increased by 4.6% on an annual basis. While a 1.5% increase was observed in the manufacturing industry on a monthly basis, an annual growth of 11.6% was realized. In the electricity, gas and steam group, there was a 0.1% contraction on a monthly basis, and an annual increase of 7.5%. Capital goods increased by 3.6%, durable consumer goods by 1.6%, intermediate goods by 1.2% and energy by 0.5% on a monthly basis. Nondurable consumer goods, on the other hand, contracted by 0.1%. Considering the annual changes in the related items; Durable consumer goods increased 22.2%, intermediate goods 13.1%, capital goods 12.4%, non-durable consumer goods 7.5% and energy 2.4%.
This positive outlook that extends to the 4Q20 period will positively affect the overall economic growth of the last quarter and will enable us to close the year with positive growth. We estimate a growth close to 1% throughout the year. However, the slowdown in global economies due to the monetary tightening, the rise in interest rates and the quarantine measures may cause a stagnation effect as of 1Q21.
